Obama's Mandate

Americans have become accustomed to seeing “mandates” in victories of presidential candidates. With the exception of anomalous races such as 2000, it is usually possible for the winning side to claim a “mandate” of one sort or another. Creating a precise definition of what a mandate is can be difficult, though, and it has been a subject of much debate among political scientists and others. Robert Dahl, for example, challenges the very notion of presidential mandates.http://transition.cqpress.com/assets/MandateControversy.htm. Andrew Busch observes that defining a mandate is a most subjective enterprise, and that one person’s mandate might be someone else’s narrow victory. http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/oped/busch/04/mandates.html Even a landslide such as Nixon’s trouncing of McGovern in 1972 raises the “mandate” question insofar as Nixon’s personal victory did not translate into the Republicans winning control of the House and the Senate. Any discussion of presidential mandates, then, must define precisely what mandates are and how they are determined before doing anything else.

In my view, several criteria must be met for a new President to have a mandate. First, he must have received more than 300 electoral votes and a majority of all popular votes cast. Next, he must have shown the ability to translate his victory into additional seats for his party in the House and the Senate. Third, he must have improved upon the performance of the last nominee of his party in terms of the popular votes and the electoral vote. Finally, he must have won a diverse array of demographic groups across the electorate. In all of these respects, Barack Obama clearly won a mandate in the November 2008 elections.

Whether President Obama has maintained his mandate can be measured by how well he is doing in the polls. The most recent Gallup Poll shows him with a job approval rating of 61%, which is down from two months ago, but higher than the 52.9% of the popular vote he won in November 2008. Given the boost that Presidents usually get from overseas trips, his approval rating is likely to be higher upon his return from the G20 Summit.

The President also acts as one who has a powerful mandate. He worked quickly to craft and win passage of the gigantic stimulus package. He has also proposed an ambitious, costly and controversial agenda of additional legislation, including health care reform. The President has felt emboldened to take a new, tougher approach with the U.S. auto industry.

The key to the survival of the President’s popularity, and his mandate, is the success of his stimulus package. Should his programs prove successful in improving the U.S. economy he will remain popular, and Democrats in Congress will continue to support his programs, and voters will reward the Democrats with even larger majorities in the next Congress. If his programs prove unsuccessful, his approval ratings and mandate will decline, and Democrats will begin to “run for cover” by opposing his policies.