The New Conservative Party

For those wondering whether today’s Republicans will wither away, a look at the demise of the Whigs is instructive. As John H. Aldrich argues in Why Parties?, the Whigs failed to survive as an effective national party as they were increasingly split by the slavery question. The Republicans arose as a regional, northern-based alternative to the Whigs aware that they could dominate national politics due to the sheer size and political clout of the North. Eventually, as Earl and Merle Black observe, the Republicans became a dominant national party by the 1980s, most triumphantly with Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1984 victory. If the Obama presidency is successful, and he holds onto and expands his diverse 2008 victory coalition, the Republican Party is doomed to an increasingly smaller national role. Ironically, today’s G.O.P. is becoming more and more a reverse image of its original self as a southern-based party. While the Republicans could survive for decades as a northern party, the reverse is not true. Unless the Republicans can once again become a national force, they will meet the fate of the Whigs, and a new moderate conservative party will arise to replace them, perhaps called the New Conservative Party.

The New Conservative Party, as befits a conservative party, would look to the past for inspiration, and it would find much of that in the ideas and policies of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower and to some extent Richard M. Nixon. This is a party that would, like the first Republicans, have a deep commitment to equality of opportunity. Also, in the old Whig/Republican tradition, it would not be afraid to spend public funds and do bold things in the name of “internal improvements.” Like Theodore Roosevelt, this party would support a strong role for the federal government in preserving the natural environment and regulating the excesses of large corporations. While the New Conservatives would be as mindful as Dwight D. Eisenhower of the need to balance the budget and spend responsibly, it would not be afraid, like “Ike” to spend lavishly on needed programs, as he was with N.A.S.A., the National Defense Education Act, the National Highway Act and the St. Lawrence Seaway. This new party would endorse creations of Richard Nixon, such as O.S.H.A. and the E.P.A. In terms of foreign policy, the New Conservatives would certainly “Walk softly and carry a big stick” but they would do so with Eisenhower’s concern for avoiding unnecessary expenditures of money and lives in the process. In terms of civil rights, this is a party that would embrace the African American community and welcome its participation, and demonstrate its commitment as Eisenhower did in 1957 at Little Rock and by signing the 1957 Civil Rights Act. This would not be the party of Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich!

Potential support would come from several areas. Like the earlier incarnations of the Republican Party, the New Conservatives would likely find their strongest support in the current “purple” states, as well as the more conservative “blue” states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. They could likely win support in the South, except for those areas with strong concentrations of “religious right” voters, such as South Carolina. It is unlikely that they would do well consistently in New York or California, but a popular candidate from either of those states could change that.

In terms of candidates and leaders, several names come to mind. Arnold Schwarzenegger, while of course ineligible to become President, would clearly be happy in such a party. Senators Arlen Spector, Olympia Snowe and Susan M. Collins also would be likely members. Moderate, “budget hawk” Democrats from purple states, such as Evan Bayh and Jon Tester might also find a home among the New Conservatives. Governor Bobby Jindal would not only find this an agreeable place, but would also be in the position of being an immediate contender for the presidential nomination. Overall, this would be a place for Democrats unhappy with the expansion of government and the increase of taxes of the Obama administration, combined with Republicans who could no longer cope with having their party hijacked by the likes of Sarah Palin.

How soon and how successfully such a party could compete depends in large part on the events of the next few years. If the Obama recovery plan is slow to take effect, this would certainly accelerate the demands for such a new party. Should the radical religious right succeed in taking over the Republican Party in 2012, this would likely cause moderate Republicans to seek an alternative party. While the New Conservatives could possibly win local and state offices in 2012, they would probably not be a serious contender for the White House until 2016.

Finally, every major political party in the U.S. must, it seems, have an animal symbol. The Whigs, trying to affect a frontier sensibility, had their raccoon. Today’s major parties have the donkey and elephant. A good choice for the New Conservatives would be the squirrel—hard-working and honest yet friendly, sociable and welcoming of all.