An Analysis of Bill Clinton's 1996 Re-election

Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election victory was historic for several reasons. He was the first (and only) Democratic president reelected to a second term since Franklin Roosevelt 60 years earlier. Despite the “Republican Revolution” of 1994, in which the Republicans wrested control of both the House and the Senate from Democrats, Bill Clinton won a resounding, if not landslide victory. After winning just 43% of the popular vote in the three-way Clinton/Bush/Perot race of 1992, Bill Clinton received 49.2% of the popular vote in 1996 and 379 electoral votes. An analysis of the election reveals several reasons for his success; analysis of polling data reveals the breadth of his victory. In looking at the data from 1996, it is clear that while Bill Clinton was adept at insuring his own political success, he was not necessarily building a strong Democratic party.

Clinton’s success was due in part to the “double Southern strategy” of the Clinton/Gore ticket (Arkansas/Tennessee). Clinton and Gore won the reliably Democratic Northeast, Midwest and West, while building on the Clinton/Gore base in the upper South. The perennial Democratic problem since the mid-1960s (except for Jimmy Carter) of being “shut out” in the South was avoided.

Bill Clinton’s communication skills are also unsurpassed, as anyone who has heard him (including this author) can attest. He is equally profound, and moving, in a large group, small group, with audiences of any age or race, with people of any social class. He can make almost any group feel that he empathizes with and cares about them. The honorable, yet less gifted Senator Dole was simply outperformed in almost every step of the campaign by President Clinton.

As a leader of the centrist, Democratic Leadership Council, Clinton consciously strove to moderate the policies of the Democratic Party and his presidency, particularly in the election year of 1996. In that year alone, working with the Republican-led House and Senate, he signed into law such measures as the Communications Decency Act (to control pornography), the Defense of Marriage Act (to allow states to ban gay marriage), and, most importantly, the Welfare Reform Act. Clinton positioned himself as a social and economic conservative while maintaining the loyalty of traditionally Democratic groups.

A comparison of exit poll data between the 1992 and 1996 elections reveals the success of Clinton’s strategies, and the astonishing breadth of his reelection victory. Clinton lost support among only two demographic groups, and only by small margins. (He lost support among those over 60 from 50% to 48% and among Jews from 80% to 78 %.)
Among every other group his support remained at the same level or rose considerably.
Particularly notable were the dramatic increases in support he received among the following groups from 1992 to 1996: http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html


Women (from 45% to 54%)

Whites (39 to 43%)

Hispanics (61 to 72%)

No high school ((54 to 59%)

Some college (41 to 48%)

Protestant (36 to 41%)

Big Cities (58 to 68%)

Suburbs (41 to 47%)


Rural (39 to 44%)



Clinton’s broad victory among almost every demographic group defied many expectations. Considering that the Republicans retained control of Congress in 1996, and that the Democrats lost the White House in the next two presidential elections, Clinton’s 1996 reelection victory certainly stands out as a testimony to his personal political skills, rather than his ability to lead his party.