The Republicans are not the Whigs

In his analysis of the U.S. party system, John Aldrich examines the rise, fall and transformation of political parties. In his view parties formed to solve the “collective action problem” as like-minded individuals coalesced into organizations designed to advance their own careers and promote their policy agendas. Parties ceased to exist when there was a disincentive to remain in these organizations, either because of their lack of electoral success, or because of serious internal divisions that left them impotent as national political organizations. The Federalists finally disappeared due to a propensity to run strong in New England but not in the expanding U.S. frontier. The Whigs, beset by serious internal division over slavery, ceased to function as an effective party after the failed compromises over slavery in 1850 and 1854. In light of the recent Republican electoral failures in national politics, some have drawn a parallel between today’s Republicans and the Whigs of yore, insisting that the GOP is on the verge of extinction. While the Republican Party will be severely wounded by a successful Obama presidency, it is not about to end anytime soon.

While President Obama and the Democratic Party won impressive victories nationwide in November 2008, the Republican Party certain remains a strong, if diminished presence. Although Democrats currently hold a majority of the governorships and control most of the state legislatures, their lead is by no means insurmountable. http://ballotbox.governing.com/2009/01/which-party-runs-state-government.html

A glance at the composite US electoral map for 2008 reveals abundant red, and more importantly purple areas scattered throughout the United States. These are areas where many voters still tend to skew more conservative on many issues, particularly areas such as gun control, abortion and gay rights.

The great variable, though, in deciding the fate of the Republican Party is what happens with the Obama presidency. Several months into office President Obama remains enormously popular. Recent polls also indicate that Americans feel more optimistic about the economy and their country than they did before January 20. President Obama reassembled much of the old New Deal coalition (except the South) and they will remain intensely loyal to him and his party if he succeeds. Should the President’s policies prove unable to end the recession, or meet the challenge of terrorism, he could very well be turned out of office and the Republican Party see a new rebirth. If the Obama presidency succeeds, and I hope it does, the Republicans will be wandering in the wilderness for awhile, but they will not go away; they have enough inherent strength to avoid that fate.